Shelly O'Neil March 31, 2025
You’ve probably seen the headlines: mortgage rates are still high, and the market feels tricky. But here’s what those headlines aren’t saying—there are subtle signs of life starting to pop up in the housing market.
Mortgage purchase applications are up year-over-year. Yep, even with rates still hanging out above 6.5%, buyer activity is starting to stir. It’s not a frenzy (yet), but it’s something worth watching.
What are mortgage purchase applications anyway?
It’s just buyers applying for home loans—a solid early indicator of where the market might be headed in the next 30 to 90 days. If you want to spot a shift before it shows up in the headlines, this is one of the best ways to do it.
So far in the first 10 weeks of 2025, we’ve had:
4 positive weeks
3 flat weeks
3 negative weeks
Not earth-shattering, I know—but that’s still more positive momentum than we’ve seen in a while. And when mortgage applications go up, it usually means more buyers are getting serious.
Early bursts in 2023 and 2024… and then a slowdown
The past two years, we saw little bursts of buyer activity early in the year, then things slowed way down. Why? Mortgage rates.
Remember late 2023? Rates were pushing 8%, but then dropped to around 6.6% in early 2024. That gave buyers a little breathing room, and we saw a quick bump in sales. But once rates crept back up, the momentum faded fast.
So what’s different about 2025?
This year feels different because we’re seeing applications go up without a big drop in rates. As of mid-March, the average 30-year fixed is around 6.7%—still high, but better than where we were.
Buyers are adjusting. 6.7% might not be ideal, but it feels a heck of a lot more manageable than 8%. And according to market watchers like Logan Mohtashami from HousingWire, this is the first time in a long while we’ve seen consistent positive movement even without rates falling.
If we get closer to 6% and it sticks? Watch out—demand could take off.
Bottom line:
Purchase applications are trending up, and that tells me buyers are starting to re-enter the market. If you’ve been on the sidelines waiting for a sign—it might already be here. If you'd like to know more specific information about your home and your neighborhood, reach out to us we would love to hear from you!
We're excited to connect with you and help you achieve your real estate goals. Whether you have questions about buying, selling, or investing, or you simply want to learn more about our services, we're here to provide the information and guidance you need. Let's connect today!