Housing Affordability: What’s Really Going On?

Spoiler alert: Housing affordability isn’t as simple as the headlines make it sound.

Depending on who you ask, the real issue isn’t just high home prices or limited inventory. It’s about access. It’s about opportunity. And most importantly, it’s about what “affordable” even means for the people trying to buy right now.

So what does affordability really look like here in San Diego? And where do you actually stand a chance of finding the right home at the right price?

Let’s break it down.

Is It Really a Housing Shortage—or Something Else?

If you’ve been following the national conversation, you’ve probably heard a lot about the so-called “housing shortage.” But two of the biggest names in real estate data—Ivy Zelman and Logan Mohtashami—have slightly different takes on what’s actually going on.

Ivy Zelman’s Take: It’s About Access, Not Just Supply

If you don’t know Ivy Zelman, she’s the one who famously called the 2008 housing crash years before it happened. When it comes to today's market, she says the real challenge isn’t just how many homes are available—it’s that most people can’t afford the homes that are available.

In a recent webinar, she put it pretty bluntly:

“You can talk about how many units might be short, but if you can’t offer a rental under $1,000 a month or a mortgage payment people can actually afford, who really cares?”

Translation? It doesn’t matter how many homes are for sale if the payments are out of reach for everyday buyers. And honestly, she’s right—especially when you look at how hard it is for young buyers to even afford rent these days, let alone a mortgage.

Logan Mohtashami’s Take: Affordability Has Always Been an Issue

Logan Mohtashami brings another important perspective:
When has housing ever been truly affordable?

He points out that home prices have historically gone up during almost every major inflation period—from the 1940s to the 1970s to the last few years during the pandemic.

In his view, waiting around for a "market crash" or hoping prices drop dramatically isn’t a real strategy. It’s wishful thinking. People have always made homeownership work by combining incomes, adjusting expectations, or being flexible about location and size.

So Where Does San Diego Stand?

While experts debate nationally, Realtor.com recently graded each state on housing affordability and homebuilding strength. (Spoiler: California didn’t exactly get a gold star.)

👉 California’s reality:

• Median home prices far above the national average

• Tough building restrictions

• Affordability challenges even for high earners

In fact, only 18 states can say their median home is affordable for the median income earner. California? Not one of them.

But here’s the thing: real estate is local. Statewide stats don’t tell the full story.

What Housing Affordability Looks Like Here, Locally

In San Diego County, affordability looks different depending on where you’re looking.

First-time buyers are still finding success in areas like Vista, parts of Escondido, and some pockets of East County. Builders are also getting creative with smaller homes, townhomes, and incentives like rate buydowns to make payments more manageable.

There are also local programs offering down payment assistance, closing cost help, and special financing options that most buyers don’t even know exist.

The point is: if you’re willing to be a little flexible, there are paths forward.

Bottom Line: You Still Have Options

Yes, it’s more expensive to buy today than it was a few years ago. And yes, rates matter. But your dream of homeownership is not out of reach.

Here’s how smart buyers are making it happen:

• Getting crystal clear on their budget before falling in love with homes they can’t comfortably afford

• Exploring all financing options—from first-time buyer programs to rate buydowns

• Staying flexible on location, size, or features to find the right fit at the right price

If you’re curious about what’s possible for you right now, or you just want honest advice without the sales pitch, reach out.

I’m happy to walk you through the real numbers, the real opportunities, and what options might make the most sense for you.