Waiting for Home Prices to Come Down? You May Be Waiting Longer Than You Think

One of the most common things I hear from buyers right now is:

"We're just going to wait and see what happens."

And I completely understand why.

Interest rates are higher than most people would like. Home prices aren't exactly cheap. It feels like if you just wait a little longer, maybe things will get easier.

The question is: what if they don't?

Oxford Economics, one of the world's leading economic research firms, recently projected that meaningful improvements in housing affordability could be as much as seven years away.

Seven years.

Now, before you panic and run out to buy a house tomorrow, let's talk about what that actually means.

Housing Affordability Isn't Just About Home Prices

When most people talk about affordability, what they're really talking about is price.

They want prices to come down.

The challenge is that affordability is made up of three things:

• Home prices
• Mortgage rates
• Income

All three have to work together.

Home prices could stay flat, but if rates stay elevated, affordability doesn't improve much. On the flip side, rates could come down, but if more buyers jump back into the market, prices often rise in response.

That's why simply waiting for prices to fall isn't always the winning strategy people think it is.

So What Is Oxford Economics Saying?

Their research suggests that bringing housing affordability back to historical norms could take approximately seven years.

That's because it would require some combination of:

• Lower mortgage rates
• Slower home price growth or price corrections
• Meaningful income growth

Could it happen sooner? Of course.

Could it take longer? Also possible.

The point isn't that anyone has a crystal ball. The point is that some very smart economists are saying affordability challenges aren't likely to disappear anytime soon.

The Cost of Waiting

Here's the part many buyers don't consider.

Waiting isn't free.

Every month you're renting, you're still making a housing payment. The difference is that payment is building your landlord's wealth instead of your own.

At the same time, homeowners are:

• Building equity
• Benefiting from potential appreciation
• Locking in a housing payment that won't increase every year like rent often does

And if rates eventually come down significantly?

There's a good chance many buyers who are sitting on the sidelines today will jump back into the market. More buyers typically means more competition, which can put upward pressure on prices.

In other words, lower rates don't automatically mean cheaper homes.

What Does This Mean for San Diego Buyers?

I don't think the takeaway is that everyone should rush out and buy a house tomorrow.

I do think the takeaway is that waiting should be an intentional decision, not an automatic one.

The right question isn't:

"Will prices come down?"

The right question is:

"What does waiting actually cost me, and how does that compare to buying today?"

Every buyer's situation is different. Your income, savings, timeline, and goals matter far more than a national headline.

My Advice

If you've been sitting on the fence, let's run the numbers.

Not generic numbers. Your numbers.

Sometimes waiting makes perfect sense. Sometimes it doesn't.

The important thing is understanding the full picture before making a decision that could impact your finances for years to come.

If you'd like to see what buying versus waiting looks like based on your specific situation, let's have a conversation. I'm happy to walk you through the numbers and help you make the decision that's right for you.