What Buyers and Homeowners Should Know Before 2026 Hits
Shelly O'Neil December 1, 2025
Shelly O'Neil December 1, 2025
You would not believe how good it feels to take one of those dramatic, doom-and-gloom housing headlines and replace it with real data that makes buyers and homeowners visibly relax… like you can literally see the tension leave their shoulders.
And honestly? This week was full of those moments. If you spent Thanksgiving around family, you know how fast a conversation can jump from “When’s the turkey going in?” to “Why is Aunt Sally’s condo still sitting on the market?”
People are always asking How's the market? so I figured, okay, we’re talking about it anyway, let me just break it down.
Here’s your Fourth Quarter Housing Q&A, with the actual data you can feel confident about.
Let’s look at our local SD market:
Median sale price (all of San Diego County, October 2025): $885,000.
For detached (single-family) homes in SD County (Oct 2025): median sale price $1,011,500.
For attached homes (condos/townhomes) in Oct 2025: median sale price $660,000.
Median days on market (countywide) recently rose, homes are taking longer to sell than last year.
This one spread like wildfire because Zillow shared a stat that scared a lot of homeowners: 53% of homes dipped in value over the past year.
Sounds dramatic, but the context tells a very different story:
Home values exploded for six straight years, a tiny pullback is normal
The average dip from peak value is 9.7%, nowhere near the 27% crash in 2008
Only 4.1% of homes are valued below their last purchase price
And the typical homeowner has seen a 67% increase in value since buying
That just means:
Most homeowners are still sitting on strong equity, and a slightly lower Zestimate does not mean your financial future is in danger.
No, 2008 was a totally different animal and had everything to do with the lending practices at that time.
Foreclosures have ticked up. ATTOM reported 36,766 foreclosure filings in October, up 3% from September and up 19% from last year.
BUT, and this is the part the headlines skip:
We’re rising from historically low levels
Activity is still far below normal
Only 3,872 homes were actually repossessed in October
Many areas showing “spikes” are just catching up on delayed reporting
What is real:
Insurance costs are up
Property taxes are up
Everyday expenses are rising faster than incomes
So yes, families are feeling the squeeze, but this is nowhere near 2008.
Most homeowners today have solid equity and far safer loans.
This one went viral because it sounds like an affordability fix. But here’s the truth:
A 50-year mortgage isn’t legal under current federal rules
Changing that would require rewriting the Qualified Mortgage (QM) rule
Even if it became legal, it slows equity growth and massively increases interest
For now, it’s a talking point, not something your lender can offer.
If you locked in a 2–3% rate, I totally understand why this idea sounds amazing.
Portable mortgages would let you bring your rate with you to your next home.
The FHFA is studying the idea, but nothing is official, approved, or even close to rollout.
Most mortgages are written to explicitly prevent portability anyway.
So for now, this is still theoretical.
If it ever becomes a real option, trust me, you’ll hear it from me immediately.
Here’s the latest NAR forecast, and it’s actually hopeful:
Existing home sales expected to rise 14%
Home prices projected to rise 3% in 2025 and 4% in 2026
Mortgage rates may ease from 6.7% to around 6%
Mortgage applications are already up 31% year over year, signaling early demand
What does that mean?
More movement. More opportunities.
A healthier pace. Less chaos.
If you’re thinking about buying, selling, or just planning ahead in San Diego, especially in the luxury, coastal, or North County markets, I’m always here to help talk through your goals.
And if this blog didn’t answer the question that’s been on your mind, just reach out. I’m happy to give you the real data anytime. https://links.townsites.com/widget/bookings/intro-call-with-shelly
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